In late September, Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed a statewide emergency ahead of the 2026-27 El Niño event. An El Niño year is a period when the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean experiences unusually warm sea surface temperatures, disrupting global weather patterns.
Historically, El Niño storms are much stronger in Southern California than in Northern California. For us, rainfall is often similar to any other year. But since there tends to be a lot of variation from one El Niño to the next, it’s best to be prepared. And the time is now!
The main concern isn't necessarily more storms. It's how much rain falls in a short period, how wet the ground already is, and whether storms arrive back-to-back. Intense rainfall can overwhelm drainage systems and cause creeks to rise quickly. Saturated soils on steep slopes can become unstable, especially after prolonged or repeated rainfall, causing landslides. Strong winds can damage trees and power lines.
Newsom has directed state agencies to position supplies, equipment and personnel ahead of anticipated storms. As homeowners, we should also be prepared. We all have maintenance and home improvement projects we’ve put off for months (and sometimes, years). Now is the time to move them to the top of the list.
If we get a deluge of water this winter, is your house ready? Be sure water can flow in a productive direction, preferably away from your house. Clean out gutters. Check your roof for missing or broken shingles and cracked flashing around roof penetrations. Trim trees with branches that overhang your roof or take out the trees completely. It’s way better to do this when it’s not pouring buckets of water making ladders less stable, roofs slicker, and gutters horribly mucky.
If water tends to pool at the bottom of your driveway or other unhelpful areas, would a French drain system help? Are there slippery walkways that could use some anti-slip measures? I understand this isn’t how most of us want to spend our time and money, but the cost of delays can skyrocket during an El Niño year.
Another El Niño Consideration
If you are a landlord, you may also need to prepare for price-gouging restrictions. When emergencies hit, the governor can enact protections against price-gouging that reduce what you’re allowed to charge for rent. While no one is in favor of price-gouging, burdening landlords with extra costs during a natural disaster doesn’t feel fair either.
Specifically, under California Penal Code §396, when a state or local emergency is declared, landlords cannot raise rent by more than 10% above the amount charged immediately before the declaration, even when renting to a new tenant to bring the rent up to market rates. The emergency rent cap has a six-month term, but this often gets extended, effectively locking rents for years.
Rent increases in California are already limited, even when no emergency is in effect. A landlord can raise the rent no more than twice in any 12-month period on most residential rentals, and the two increases combined cannot exceed 5% plus the consumer price index (inflation rate), with a hard ceiling of 10%.
As hard as it is, this is why I recommend small rent increases over time. When a new tenant comes in under a suppressed rate, this becomes the starting baseline for all future rent increases under rent control, meaning landlords may struggle to catch up to market rate until that tenant leaves.
If you’re a landlord and you have a sweet little old lady who cannot afford a rent increase, I recommend charging market-rate rent and then sending her a separate subsidy check for the difference. This establishes a higher base rent for future reference and keeps rent affordable for your tenant. Also, sending her a check each month is a good reminder of the opportunity cost of keeping her rent low. You’re choosing to support this person rather than engaging in other charitable giving or saving for other expenses.
The long and short of it is that El Niño winters are good reminders to take care of things we should be doing anyway, whether that’s fixing our roof or charging market rates for rent.
If you have questions about property management or real estate, please contact me at [email protected] or call (707) 462-4000. If you have an idea for a future column, share it with me and if I use it, I’ll send you a $25 gift certificate to Schat’s Bakery.
Dick Selzer is a real estate broker who has been in the business for more than 50 years. The opinions expressed here are his and do not necessarily represent his affiliated organizations.
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