When I’m asked when to replace a water heater, my answer is always, “A month before the warranty expires.” It seems that manufacturers of this particular appliance can time their product’s useful life down to the wire—five minutes after the warranty expires, so does the water heater.

Recently, however, I’ve had to amend my answer. If you have a gas water heater and you don’t want to be required to convert it to an electric one, you should consider replacing your water heater before the end of this year.

Although Mendocino County property owners are not currently required to replace gas water heaters with electric ones, the writing is on the wall. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQM), with authority from Santa Clara County all the way up to southern Sonoma County, has already decided that new construction cannot include gas water heaters, and although retrofits aren’t required, after January 1, 2027, if you’re in their jurisdiction and your gas water heater goes out, you’ll have to replace it with an electric one.

BAAQM believes that nitrogen oxides (NOx) are a leading cause of pollution. They assert that replacing gas furnaces and water heaters with electric ones reduces NOx and secondary particulate matter emissions and they hope to “prevent up to 85 premature deaths and save up to $890 million in health impacts annually” by requiring the move to electric.

I don’t know what they are basing their estimates on, but I do know that if officials in Mendocino County follow suit and require us to move to gas appliances, some interesting challenges will arise.

Older homes may require electrical panels to be upgraded or replaced to handle increased electrical demand. This, of course, will require homeowners to hire an electrician, and then wait for PGE approval. Even now, the wait for PG&E approval can be as long as two months. If the demand for electric water heaters surges because everyone has waited until the last minute, electricians will be in high demand and there will likely be a bigger delay for PG&E approval. This could leave households without hot water for weeks (or longer).

This whole shift to electric could also put a strain on the grid, especially in older neighborhoods that lack the infrastructure to handle the heavier load. This, in turn, will require utility companies to upgrade their lines. And once everything is done, homeowners will pay higher prices because as of now, electricity costs more per gallon of heated water than gas.

Because I prefer my gas water heater, I am planning to replace it with a new gas water heater that will last for years to come, delaying the conversion to electric for as long as possible. Since installation costs the same whether you choose a budget model that will last five years or a high-quality model that will last 20, I recommend investing in the best quality you can afford. I am making plans to do this now so I can beat the crowd and have this all done if and when regulations hit Mendocino County.

I am not unsympathetic to the need to care for our planet. I understand the desire to reduce pollutants, but most electricity requires the burning of fossil fuels. Until we have truly clean energy, I don’t know how much of a difference gas versus electric water heaters really makes.

If you have a solar installation that provides electricity, especially if you can shut off the feed to PG&E and keep using it in the event of a power outage, moving to electric appliances makes more sense, I think. Tax credits for solar installations have expired but could return at some point. Still, the interest paid on solar financing is tax- deductible, effectively making electric bills tax-deductible.

The long and short of it is that if you have a gas water heater and you prefer to keep it that way, you may want to be proactive about replacing it with a gas heater that won’t go out right about the time regulations require you to replace it with an electric one.

If you have questions about property management or real estate, please contact

me at [email protected] or call (707) 462-4000. If you have an idea for a future column, share it with me and if I use it, I’ll send you a $25 gift certificate to Schat’s Bakery.

Dick Selzer is a real estate broker who has been in the business for more than 50 years. The opinions expressed here are his and do not necessarily represent his affiliated organizations.