As a real estate broker, I watch market trends the way a farmer watches weather. Individual days can be deceptive, but patterns tell a story. And right now, the story in the Ukiah Valley is clear: home prices have dropped significantly, and that's creating real opportunities for buyers and sellers alike.

The median home price in our area this January was $480,000, down from $575,000 in January 2025. That's a 16% decline, which is meaningful on its own, but even more impactful when you factor in that interest rates have also fallen from 7% to 6%, a 14% decline. (As a reminder, the median is the middle value in a data set when the numbers are arranged from smallest to largest.)

Here's what all this looks like in practice. If you bought a median-priced home in January 2025 with 20% down on a 30-year fixed mortgage, your monthly payment with property taxes was roughly $3,635. Buy that same "median home" today and you're looking at about $2,782 per month, a savings of $853 every month. That's more than $10,000 a year.

Another way to look at this is that you could qualify for today's median-priced home on about 30% less income than you'd have needed a year ago. For buyers who were just out of reach, the door to home ownership may now be open.

Inventory has shifted dramatically as well. A year ago, the valley had about 2.6 months’ worth of homes for sale—a tight market that gave sellers the upper hand. Today we're sitting at 6.4 months of inventory. That's a buyer's market by most measures, and it explains why prices have softened. More supply, more competition, more negotiating room for buyers.

If you're thinking of selling, you’re in a more competitive environment. Price matters most, but it isn't everything. I recommend getting your inspections done early. Buyers appreciate transparency, and a surprise late in the escrow process can stop the transaction in its tracks. Beyond that, don't underestimate the basics: mow the lawn, put the trash cans away before anyone comes over, pull back the curtains to let light in, and declutter aggressively. You want people to be able to imagine their belongings in that space. Buying a home is both a financial and an emotional decision, and sellers who appeal to both tend to do better.

One more thing: keep your darling dog elsewhere during showings and open houses. Not everyone loves dogs the way you do.

If you're a buyer, you have more options than you've had in a while. You can afford to be selective but remember that sellers still choose their buyer. Be firm where it matters and flexible where it doesn't.

As for timing the market: don't try. Nobody rings a bell when the market crests or bottoms out. If you can afford to buy, buy. If you're ready to sell, prepare your home as well as you can and list it. Work with your REALTOR who knows the area and can help you make the decisions that are right for you.

If you have questions about property management or real estate, please contact me at [email protected] or call (707) 462-4000. If you have an idea for a future column, share it with me and if I use it, I’ll send you a $25 gift certificate to Schat’s Bakery.

Dick Selzer is a real estate broker who has been in the business for more than 50 years. The opinions expressed here are his and do not necessarily represent his affiliated organizations.