People often ask what I think the housing market will do. Without a crystal ball,
it’s hard to know. What I can tell you about is recent trends, which often give a glimpse
of where the market is going.

     The value of knowing the trends, especially if you plan to sell your house, is that
hard facts can help you cut through the emotion that often clouds decision making. I’m a
sentimentalist, so I know how hard it can be to separate how you feel about a property
from its market value. I have furniture from my mother that was in our home when I was
five years old—I wouldn’t part with it for any price. 

     Here’s the problem: If you equate all your positive memories with the value of the
house, it puts you into a bad analysis position. You need to wash emotions out of the
equation. If you’re struggling to do so, ask your REALTOR for support. They can help
you make data-based decisions about pricing and other matters.

     Your REALTOR will assess your property based on its condition, location, view,
and other amenities to help you make choices that will ultimately serve your goal of
selling your house. REALTORs can also dig into the data to see exactly how the
averages were created. Sometimes outliers can skew the numbers, so it’s important to
choose a REALTOR who really understands the market.

     The information below reflects Mendocino County’s 101 corridor, including
Hopland, Talmage, Ukiah, Calpella, Redwood Valley, Willits—all the way up through
Laytonville and Branscomb. It includes properties under $1.5 million (so big ranch
properties aren’t included, but most single-family homes are) for the period September
2024 to November 2025, the latest data available when I wrote this.

     As a statistics refresher, the mean is the average of a set of values calculated by
dividing the sum of all values by the number of values. The median is the middle value
in a data set when the numbers are arranged from smallest to largest. The mode is the
value that appears most frequently in a data set.
SALES, PENDING SALES & LISTINGS

     The market is similar to this time last year. There’s always a seasonal dip in
home sales in winter. For the quarter ending in November 2025, listings were up about
9%, sales were up about 16%, and pending sales were up about 17%.

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT & MEDIAN PRICE

     The price per square foot is a great way to compare what’s for sale, but it
changes frequently, so you’ll want the latest figures. As long as you’re looking at
properties in a similar location with similar attributes, price per square foot is a good
indicator of value. In July, the average price per square foot was $336. In September it
was $293, and in October it jumped to $327. So, in our area, I’d say you’re safe to
assume a price per square foot is around $300. REALTORs often multiply the region’s
average price per square foot by a property’s square footage to get a rough sale price.
The median home price in fall was a little lower than the year before, dropping from
$495,000 to $479,000.

AVERAGE DAYS ON THE MARKET

     Average days on the market indicates how robust the market is. Properties are
typically on the market longer during fall and winter. Properties are starting to move
more quickly now, indicating sellers may be adjusting to market realities and lowering
their prices. If your house is priced right, that is, within 5-10% of the final sales price, it
should sell relatively quickly—in line with the average days on the market.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY BASED ON CLOSED SALES
     Finally, we can look at how many months of inventory we have based on closed
sales, which is calculated by dividing the number of properties on the market by the
number of sales in that month. Six months’ of inventory is the breaking point between a
buyer’s and seller’s market. Longer than six months makes it a buyer’s market and less
makes it a seller’s market. Late last year, we had about five months of inventory, a slight
slowdown from the months before.
     All in all, there’s no timing the market. You should buy when you need to buy and
sell when you need to sell.

     If you have questions about property management or real estate, please contact
me at [email protected] or call (707) 462-4000. If you have an idea for a future
column, share it with me and if I use it, I’ll send you a $25 gift certificate to Schat’s
Bakery.

     Dick Selzer is a real estate broker who has been in the business for more than
45 years. The opinions expressed here are his and do not necessarily represent his
affiliated organizations.